In Print
Trump says U.S. ‘locked and loaded’ for N. Korea — and markets go up
Washington Post
August 11, 2017
“Markets have shrugged everything off,” Washington investment manager Michael Farr said. “Bull market psychology dismisses bad news and embraces good news. They shrugged off terrorist attacks in Paris and London, the mother of all bombs in Afghanistan. People forget the 59 missiles we launched into Syria. There is upheaval in Venezuela. Nobody cares anymore.”
What’s behind the Dow’s stunning rise to 22,000
Washington Post
August 3, 2017
Michael Farr, a Washington investment manager said the Dow’s 22,000 mark “should be celebrated. It heralds the success of the American economy.
“But,” he continued, “the individual investor should remember that the rule is buy low and sell high. This is not low. Markets don’t stay high forever. This will come down.”
Bezos knocks Gates off perch as richest person in the world — for a few hours
Washington Post
July 27, 2017
“Mae West said, ‘Too much of a good thing can be wonderful,’ ” said Michael Farr, who runs a Washington investment firm. “We presume Mr. Bezos agrees. The power and value of technology can’t be overestimated. We believe Mr. Bezos will continue to set records.”
Trumpcare fail deflates markets
The Australian Financial Review
July 19, 2017
“We know that the healthcare reform is not going to happen and that has the market wondering ‘if they can’t get that done, can they get tax reform done’?” said Michael Farr, chief executive of investment management firm Farr, Miller & Washington.
“If not, then I think a [market] tantrum is in the offing.”
House Republican budget proposal paves way for tax reform, another intraparty battle
The Washington Times
July 18, 2017
Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, said on CNBC that Wall Street is watching and predicted that the markets would “stabilize and go higher” if Congress enacts tax reform.
However, he warned, “If not, then I think a tantrum is in the offing.”
Market ‘tantrum’ likely if no corporate tax reform, expert says
CNBC
July 18, 2017
“There is a win-win here for portions of this tax reform deal for Republicans and Democrats agreeing both on the corporate tax and the repatriation,” the president of Farr, Miller & Washington said in an interview with “Power Lunch.”
“If they can get that done and we can see some progress, then I think markets stabilize and go higher. If not, then I think a tantrum is in the offing.”
Why Healthcare Funds Are Not Sickened By GOP Bid To Kill Obamacare
Forbes
July 14, 2017
“Hospitals, especially those that see a lot of Medicaid patients, could be especially hard hit by the proposed Medicaid cuts through the treatment of more uninsured people who don’t have the ability to pay,” Michael Farr, founder and CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington, wrote in a client note June 29. “Insurance companies that cover a lot of Medicaid patients could be especially hard hit.”
Yellen’s testimony didn’t have any surprises
CNBC
July 12, 2017
Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, said he does not think Yellen was dovish in her testimony Wednesday. He said he would be surprised if the Fed does not raise interest rates again this year.
“I think she wants to do it before the next chairman comes in,” Farr said on “Closing Bell.” “I think she wants to start that ball rolling.”
Here’s the danger in Fed jawboning about the US mortgage market
CNBC
July 6, 2017
Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell did it today. Alan Greenspan did it when he was Chairman. Jawboning about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. As the Federal Reserve begins to raise short term rates, longer term rates have remained stubbornly low.
Stocks Ring Up a Solid First Half
The Wall Street Journal
June 30, 2017
“The market’s crafting a lot of excuses for why it’s up the way that it is,” said Michael Farr, president of money management firm Farr, Miller & Washington, adding that the thing that worries him most about the stock market’s gains in the first half is the lack of concern among clients.
Your European vacation just got pricier
USA Today
June 29, 2017
“The trip across the pond just got more expensive,” said Michael Farr, CEO of money-management firm Farr Miller & Washington. “While it’s only a few percent so far, the cost of a bottle of red, steak frites and penne al pesto will cost you more.”
Europe is still a bargain compared with a few summers ago, he said, but warned, “if this (stronger euro) trend begins to move higher, Americans should grab the foie gras while they can still afford it.”
GE’s CEO Jeffrey Immelt to step down after 16 years
Washington Post
June 12, 2017
“Jeff Immelt is unfairly criticized for not doing enough for GE shareholders,” said Michael Farr, an investor and president of Farr, Miller & Washington, a Washington, D.C. firm. “In fact, he provided an excellent transition from the Jack Welch magical, do-no-wrong leadership and a highly leveraged balance sheet to a more conservative firm able to weather and endure.”
Amazon joins ‘$1,000 Stock Club’ and Alphabet creeps closer
USA Today
May 29, 2017
Michael Farr, president of money-management firm Farr Miller & Washington, warns that investors buying “passive” funds that track indexes like the S&P 500 might have more exposure to tech than they think.
Trump worries lower Dow by nearly 373 points
USA Today
May 17, 2017
* Investor psychology suffers jolt. Trump’s latest controversy, which involves potential obstruction of justice, is nearing a more dangerous level, said Michael Farr, president at investment firm Farr, Miller & Washington. “While the White House has successfully dodged a number of thorny issues so far, the accusation of documentable obstruction of justice reaches a new level of possible peril,” Farr said. “This may be the event that turns the emotional and psychological tide.”
Turmoil over recent Trump controversies triggers the Dow’s biggest loss since September
Washington Post
May 17, 2017
“The latest controversy involving the Trump administration erodes confidence in his administration’s ability to enact tax reform,” said Michael Farr, who runs a Washington investment firm. “The prospect of significant tax reform has been buoying markets since President Trump was elected. We’ve had many controversies, but nothing has gotten the market’s attention. But once you start to go after tax reform, you are going to have the market’s full attention.”
Beware of Big Gains in Big Names Like Apple and Amazon.
CNBC
May 9, 2017
Given the massive size of these companies, significant price movements by any one of these names could have an even greater impact on overall index returns in the future. Investors using passive strategies, the ranks of which have swelled in recent years, should take heed. You may not own what you think you own.
Stock Market Holds Its Breath for Trump Tax Plan
Washington Post
April 26, 2017
Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, a D.C. investment firm, offered a note of caution amid the ebullience.
“To forget risk is increasing as prices rise is perilous,” Farr said.
“This is a bull market, and this is what bull markets do,” Farr said. “They embrace good news. They dismiss bad news. They don’t care about 59 missiles in Syria. They don’t care about U.S. troops off the coast of North Korea. They infer positive news from France. They like the news of big tax cuts, and they just go higher.”
Investors Need to Proceed with Caution, Experts Warn.
CNBC
April 11, 2017
“Stocks are very fully valued, and I think you have to really make sure you know what you own and why you own it because when this music stops, and it will stop, you better have a seat for you and your clients,” Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, said in an interview with “Closing Bell.”
Tesla’s ‘Crazy’ Climb to America’s Most Valuable Car Company
Washington Post
April 10, 2017
“A stock analyst’s recommendation to buy Tesla shares is “one of the more absurd I’ve seen in a while,” said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, a D.C. investment firm. He noted that the company is forecast to lose money in 2018 but that the stock is expected to increase to $368 a share.
“Investors were asked to employ a ‘creative’ valuation methodology. I think that means that when the numbers don’t make any sense, one should ignore them and focus on other things,” Farr said. “It’s like being told to ignore the flames coming out of that airplane, I’m sure your trip will be fine.”
This Market Has a Massive Wall of Worry to Climb in the Second Quarter.
CNBC
April 6, 2017
The stock market logged a solid first quarter of 2017 but as the second quarter kicks off, a bit of a chill seems to have fallen over the market as investors worry that the Federal Reserve is going to start shrinking its balance sheet in addition to raising rates. So, what should we expect for the second quarter?
A Correction Now Might Not Be So Bad, Some Investors Say.
The Wall Street Journal
March 27, 2017
“It’s like dental work,” said Michael Farr, president of the money management firm Farr, Miller & Washington. “You dread it. You don’t want to get it. But you’re glad when it’s over and you feel better.”
It’s ‘time to be cautious’ on the market.
CNBC
March 6, 2017
“I kind of long for the old days … when we would actually look at earnings and balance sheets and fundamental growth and top-line growth and these sorts of things,” the founder and CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington said in an interview with “Closing Bell.”
The Economy of Today and Tomorrow
UDaily
March 3, 2017
The University of Delaware’s 2017 Economic Forecast, hosted by UD’s Center for Economic Education and Entrepreneurship (CEEE) in partnership with Lyons Companies, offered insight on the economy of the past and forecasts for its future from experts including:
• Jeffrey M. Lacker, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond;
• Michael K. Farr, president of investment advisory firm Farr, Miller and Washington; and
• J. J. Johnson, executive vice president of Fidelity Investments
CNBC
February 17, 2017
“I’m positive. I’m bullish on the future of America,” the CEO and founder of Farr, Miller & Washington told CNBC’s “Worldwide Exchange.” “But I think we’re pricing the future of America a little bit high today with as much uncertainty as we have.”
Markets Slip After Immigration Order, but Experts Say Investors Shouldn’t Panic.
CNBC
January 30, 2017
Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, said the controversy over Trump’s order was really a sign of “mismanaged messaging over the weekend.”
“The message wasn’t sent properly. If people had been prepared, whether they liked it or didn’t like it, Wall Street can accept that. But Wall Street really reacts to surprises and a lot of people were surprised,” Farr said on “Closing Bell.”
Farr said he thinks the market reaction is just a hiccup and not a full reversal.
“It could become one, but not yet,” Farr said.
The Dow’s Over 20,000…Now What?
USA Today
January 26, 2017
Michael Farr, president of money management firm Farr, Miller & Washington, sees a market that’s now “expensive” and running on momentum amid hopes for a positive economic outlook under Trump. He’s not advocating a swing-for-the-fences investment plan.
There’s Room Left to Run After Dow 20K, but Smart Money is Keeping an Eye on These Metrics
cnbc
January 25, 2017
Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, explained there’s a disconnect between share prices and valuations.
“Could [the Dow] go up another couple thousand points on this momentum? Yeah, it could, but it’s going to go up a lot faster than the fundamental earnings and gross sales are going to increase” he said on “Halftime Report.”
If the rally continued, Farr said he would grow more cautious as the market got more expensive.
Dow Hits All Time High, Cracks 20,000 for the First Time Ever.
USA Today
January 25, 2017
“It can be very dangerous to get too caught up in the market’s euphoria about as-yet unfulfilled campaign promises,” says Michael Farr, president of money management firm Farr, Miller & Washington. The Dow’s surge the past two sessions, however, has been partly driven by Trump’s quick start in moving his agenda forward, but many details remain scant, Farr adds. “The trend is up for now, but know it won’t last forever.”
To Buy – or Not to Buy – After Dow 20,000?
USA Today
January 25, 2017
“My crystal ball is no clearer than anyone else’s,” says Michael Farr, president of money management firm Farr, Miller & Washington. “I don’t think anyone can time the markets with any degree of consistency or precision. Therefore, we will remain fully invested but defensive. It can be very dangerous to get too caught up in the market’s euphoria about as-yet unfulfilled campaign promises. However, many studies have shown that it can also be very deleterious to long-term portfolio returns to jump in and out of the market and miss just a few of the best-performing days.”
Trump and the Dollar: What You Need to Know.
USA Today
January 19, 2017
“The real conundrum is that Trump’s proposed policies, which he believes will create jobs in the U.S. while accelerating economic growth to the 3%-4% range, will, if enacted, come with some undesirable side effects,” says Michael Farr, president of money management firm Farr Miller & Washington.
Companies Pile on Job Announcements to Avoid Trump’s Wrath.
USA Today
January 17, 2017
“I do not believe it will be feasible or represent good policy for the president to strong-arm individual companies into making business decisions that are not in their best economic interests,” says Michael Farr, CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington, a money-management firm.
Dow Off 3rd Day in a Row; 20,000 Fades from View.
USA Today
January 17, 2017
“The dollar is clearly weakening today due to Trump’s comments about it being too strong,” says Michael Farr, president of money-management firm Farr Miller & Washington. “The dollar is also suffering from Trump’s comments about current Republican tax plans being too complicated. The markets have been pricing in fiscal stimulus in the form of tax reform, repatriation, infrastructure spending, and reduced regulatory oversight. If it has suddenly become less likely that we get that stimulus over the near term, it makes sense that the dollar would fall. This is just another piece of evidence to suggest that the currency markets will dampen the effects of fiscal stimulus.”
The Nasdaq is Lighting Up. Here’s Why.
USA Today
January 15, 2017
“(Tech stocks) have good profit margins and will be among the immediate beneficiaries of the Trumpconomic Brave New Capitalistic World,” says Michael Farr, CEO of money manager Farr, Miller & Washington. But he adds, “there will likely be buying opportunities as political messiness churns through the sausage-making that is our legislative process.”
Is the Stock Market Entering a ‘Show Me’ Phase?
USA Today
January 5, 2017
“I don’t think the market has suddenly become sensible and started to look for hard evidence,” says Michael Farr, president of money management firm Farr Miller & Washington. “This market is still about buying the feel-good. While tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and regulatory reform may be the perfect formula for real growth, change is months from getting through Congress and over a year away from appearing in economic data. There will be time for ‘wait and see,’ but it doesn’t feel like we are there yet.”
D.C. area’s 2017 predictions center on tech, traffic, taxes — and, of course, Trump
Washington Post
January 1, 2017
“Economic growth for the Washington metropolitan area accelerates dramatically from the relatively low 1.3 percent for 2015 as billionaires descend upon the city and government spending grows.”
Can the Stock Market Ride Its Post-Election Surge into the New Year?
Washington Post
December 28, 2016
“Investors forget markets can go down,” Michael Farr said. “If you expect as part of owning stock that it will go down for awhile, you are less likely to panic and likely to hold on to it long enough to realize a profit.”
8 Stocks Are Leading the Way for the Dow
USA Today
December 27, 2016
“No matter your view of whether prices are expensive or inexpensive, a new record level for the market is to be celebrated,” says Michael Farr.
2017 Stock Market Outlook: Why You Need To Be Cautious
Forbes
December 17, 2016
The stock market seems to be pricing in all the benefits of Trump’s policies and none of the potentially ugly side effects. Rising inflation and interest rates, a stronger dollar, higher energy prices, and rising budget and trade deficits are clear and present dangers to the economy, corporate earnings, and stock prices. The markets aren’t pricing them as such.
A Sure Sign that You Should Ditch Your Money Manager
Washington Post
December 14, 2016
“Investing, when done properly, is remarkably boring,” said Washington investor Michael Farr. “The business is unpredictable enough. It creates thrills both good and bad. There is no place for adrenaline when you are looking after other people’s money.”
It’s Almost Dow 20000: Where’s the Party? Where Are the Hats?
Wall Street Journal
December 14, 2016
“It felt like putting on a party hat, and it felt patriotic,” said Michael Farr, who procured a Dow 10000 hat after appearing as a guest on CNBC from the NYSE floor that week.
Stocks Were on a Trump Rally. Here’s Why They’ve Hit the Brakes.
Washington Post
November 28, 2016
“Markets are enjoying Trumphoria, buying on the promise of things long desired and ignoring the reality of high share valuations, rising interest rates, and a soaring dollar,” said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, a District of Columbia investment firm. “This is bull market psychology. Caution is warranted.”
Trump’s Fearless Rally Rages on for Third Week
USA Today
November 25, 2016
“Investors are embracing the promise of what may be and ignoring all of the risks. Trumphoria reigns,” says Michael Farr, president of money management firm Farr, Miller & Washington. “While lower taxes for corporations and individuals, infrastructure spending and less regulation would be welcome, they are at least a year in the making.”
Is ‘Trump Rally’ Built on Hope Alone?
USA Today
November 23, 2016
“Investors seem to be cherry-picking among Trump policies they like and ignoring those that would create headwinds,” Farr says. “Infrastructure spending, reduced taxes and reduced regulation are all welcome, but (they are) ignoring trade hostilities, higher interest rates and the surging dollar. This is clear bull-market psychology: Good news is embraced, and bad news is dismissed.”
Dow Closes at Record High as It Surges 5% for the Week, Best in 5 Years
USA Today
November 11, 2016
“Exactly what was unexpected happened, so markets are doing what markets do,” Farr says. “(Markets) price current conditions and expected future outcomes. (Investors) had it wrong, that’s why so many are scrambling.”
NPR’s Planet Money
November 9, 2016
For today, we wanted to capture a little bit of what’s happened in the economy just over the past 24 hours. So we are bringing back the Planet Money indicator: That’s where we take a number from the news and try to unpack it a little bit.
Huffington Post
November 9, 2016
M&A activity is generally perceived as a sign of an aging bull market. Why? Because companies tend to pursue acquisitions when their stock prices are high and there is a dearth of other investment opportunities. But not all M&A is created equal. We believe that by taking advantage of today’s unique backdrop we are likely to continue to get positive receptions regardless of the investment cycle.
Stock Markets Open Strong Ahead of the Election
Washington Post
November 7, 2016
“The FBI gets out of the way and markets are seeing a clearer path for a Clinton victory, which is what markets have expected for some time,” said Farr, chief executive of Farr, Miller & Washington, a D.C. investment advisory firm.
Huffington Post
October 26, 2016
There is an ample supply of angst across the nation: in markets, commodity prices, and among voters. No one lately has self-reported that they are happy across any broad spectrum of life’s many concerns. The Conference Board’s October survey of consumer confidence was weaker than expectations (98.6 versus an estimated 101.5), and uncertainty over the upcoming election was the primary reason. The best comfort one can offer is like the advice given patients awaiting major surgery: It will all be over soon! Thank goodness at least the TV ads will stop.
13 stocks break the scary ‘October jinx’
USA Today
October 31, 2016
Investors in October continued to shift their bets toward are aggressive growth stocks, and away from more “safe” dividend plays, as they look to profit even if the Fed boosts short-term interest rates, says Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington. “The large majority of investors now believe that the Fed will go ahead and raise the Fed funds rate for a second time at its December meeting,” he says. “This is being interpreted as a vote of confidence in the economy. As such, the desperate quest for yield has become less important.”
8 companies about to lose gobs of money
USA Today
October 17, 2016
These are just estimates at this point. Investors will hope actual results come in better than feared, says Michael Farr, CEO of investment company Farr, Miller & Washington. “We think earnings season will be more of the same with companies beating estimates that have been talked down over the last quarter.”
Wall Street experts predict steady stocks and higher rates in months after election
Bankrate
October 6, 2016
But more than a quarter of the experts say the next rate increase will come sometime next year. “We think any rate increase by the Fed this year will cause significant volatility in the capital markets, including capital flight from the emerging markets and a spike in the value of the dollar,” says Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington. “This will make it very difficult to follow through with a hike this year, especially given all the political uncertainty.”
How US regulators may be creating panic around Deutsche Bank
CNBC
September 30, 2016
“Certainly this appears to be severe. The size of the fine is severe. It may be intended to be severe. It may in fact prove to be devastating, and I wonder if the regulators thought that through,” said Michael Farr, CEO and founder of financial consulting firm Farr, Miller & Washington. He said he does not think a failure of Deutsche Bank would cause a banking crisis. “I think it really depends on how nervous investors get,” he said, adding that a possible outcome for the bank could be a merger with another bank.
Is Trump right about ‘big, fat, ugly bubble’?
USA Today
September 29, 2016
“No, the market is not in a big bubble,” says Michael Farr, CEO of money management firm Farr Miller & Washington. “It’s expensive, but it’s not wildly speculative.”
3 reasons a Fed rate hike is off the table till 2017
CNBC
September 8, 2016
The odds of a Fed interest-rate hike in 2016 have decreased over the past week, and not just because of Friday’s job report. In fact, the odds of a rate hike by the December meeting are now down to just over 40 percent, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool (which uses Fed Fund Futures prices to predict monetary policy). It seems like just yesterday that a December rate hike, at the latest, was pretty much a done deal. So what’s driving the reduction in expectations?
This chart explains the huge trading shift in the stock market right now
CNBC
September 2, 2016
Trading in the third quarter has been starkly different from that in the first half of the year. In the first half, the sectors that offer relatively high dividend yields enjoyed a huge influx of capital. The desperate quest for yield led to dramatic gains in low-growth, unsexy sectors like telecom and utilities. At the same time, relatively high-growth sectors such as technology, health care, and consumer discretionary posted first-half losses.
What kind of bull (or bear) are you? With stocks at highs we have to ask
USA Today
August 31, 2016
Michael Farr, president of money management firm Farr, Miller & Washington, says he’s wary. “1998 felt like this (in the run-up to the 2000 stock bust),” Farr says. “We learned that just because prices were high, it didn’t mean they couldn’t go higher. We also learned that high fliers could quickly become fast fallers. You better own quality and solid balance sheets because fluffy, concept stocks tend to evaporate. Winners have a seat when the music stops. ‘Old bulls’ curb their enthusiasm and live to graze another day.”
The Fed should stop waiting for ‘everything to be perfect’ and hike rates already
CNBC
August 25, 2016
In our opinion, the preconditions for Fed interest-rate increases have expanded well beyond their Congressional mandate of maintaining price stability and maximizing employment and now include an improvement in the quality of new jobs; better wage growth; a meaningful acceleration in inflation, even beyond its stated goal of 2 percent; high equity prices and narrow credit spreads; and a stable geopolitical backdrop. Well, the Fed should stop waiting for everything to be perfect and should start the process of normalizing interest rates now.
Are you dancing in the market with Tina?
Bankrate
August 12, 2016
“Tina … does not exactly engender confidence for fundamental investors, especially following the rapid rise in the markets over the past 7 years,” says Michael Farr, president of the investment firm, Farr, Miller & Washington.
Here’s the one data point that could be bad news for corporate profits
CNBC
August 11, 2016
Non-farm labor productivity was down for a third straight quarter, according to Wednesday’s numbers. Such consecutive drops in productivity have not been seen since 1979, the Wall Street Journal reported. In fact, this is a pattern we would normally see only during economic recessions. So, what is behind the recent weakness in productivity and should we be concerned about this key driver of income growth and living-standard improvements?
Here’s how experts think you ought to shake up the investments in your portfolio
Bankrate
July 6, 2016
“We have been defensive for a while to reflect our concerns about removal of Federal Reserve policy stimulus and high profit margins. We think investors should overweight companies/sectors with strong valuation support and defensive revenue streams. ”
How you can profit from the Brexit drama
Bankrate
June 27, 2016
As he reacted to the Brexit vote, which he called “shocking,” Michael K. Farr, president & CEO with the Washington, D.C.-based investment firm Farr, Miller & Washington, wrote in an email: “While the specifics will take months at a minimum to understand, an EU recession has likely been triggered. The U.S. Fed is now on the bench — if not considering ways to add additional stimulus.”
‘Brexit’ vote catches Wall Street at a bad time
USA Today
June 20, 2016
Michael Farr, president and CEO of money-management firm Farr, Miller & Washington, says the Brexit is the latest “potential land mine” since the financial crisis in 2008 that could cause market tumult.
What Was So Bad About the Employment Report?
Huffington Post
June 20, 2016
You may have heard the encouraging news last Friday that the unemployment rate fell to an 8-year low of 4.7% in the month of May. Or maybe you heard the discouraging news that only 38,000 jobs were created in May – the lowest monthly tally since late 2010. Upon first glance, these two reports would seem quite contradictory as to the health of the labor market. So let me see if I can clear up the ambiguity.
Huffington Post
June 15, 2016
Throughout the course of the current bull market, which admittedly began from very low levels in early 2009, there has been an overriding sense among individual investors that the second shoe is about to drop. And despite gains of over 200% since those market lows, we can still sense an uneasiness permeating some of our clients’ minds. Whether it be the impending presidential election, the threat of higher interest rates, terrorism, Europe, China, or whatever else, it seems as though many investors see far too many obstacles to higher stocks prices anytime soon. About the best scenario many see is a continuation of the flat markets we’ve experience over the past 18 months. But more importantly, many investors continue to distrust the stock market as a mechanism for retirement savings and wealth accumulation. Are they right?
Huffington Post
June 10, 2016
We have received a few calls from clients who are worried about the outcome of this year’s presidential election. Regardless of political affiliation, these clients believe that one or both of the current presumptive candidates could be disastrous for the economy and markets. Some have even suggested selling everything and going to cash while we wait for the drama to unfold. Are they right to worry?
Huffington Post
May 19, 2016
We have been talking about the likelihood of a higher savings rate for several years, and we continue to believe that further increases will be a significant drag on economic growth for at least the next several years. Why? Well the quickest explanation is that leading up the financial crisis, the savings rate had fallen far too low relative to historical averages. But simply showing that the savings rate is low relative to history is not a great explanation for why we think the savings rate will continue rising from here.
Confusion is name of game on Wall Street
USA Today
May 25, 2016
“I agree the market feels weird, but that’s because our markets are trading on the opium of low rates,” says Michael Farr, president of money-management firm Farr Miller & Washington. “As long as rates stay low, I think the limbo dance continues.”
Huffington Post
May 19, 2016
We have been talking about the likelihood of a higher savings rate for several years, and we continue to believe that further increases will be a significant drag on economic growth for at least the next several years. Why? Well the quickest explanation is that leading up the financial crisis, the savings rate had fallen far too low relative to historical averages. But simply showing that the savings rate is low relative to history is not a great explanation for why we think the savings rate will continue rising from here.
Should investors move to cash and hide out until the election is over?
CNBC
May 18, 2016
The financials sector is the worst-performing of the ten S&P 500 industry sectors this year. What’s causing the banks to underperform by such a wide margin so far this year? Is it time to buy?
Is it time to buy bank stocks?
CNBC
May 11, 2016
Regardless of political affiliation, some believe that one or both of the current presumptive candidates could be disastrous for the economy and markets. Some have even suggested selling everything and going to cash while we wait for the drama to unfold. Are they right to worry?
Investors brace for election uncertainty
Bankrate
May 9, 2016
“Our sense is that stocks are not yet reflecting the considerable uncertainty surrounding the presidential election,” says Michael Farr, president & CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington, a Washington, D.C.-based investment firm.
Don’t just blame energy for ugly earnings
USA Today
April 12, 2016
“You can’t just blame energy,” says Michael Farr, president of investment firm Farr, Miller & Washington. Farr says the problem is many companies have already slashed costs to the bone so it has become very difficult for them to keep more of every dollar of revenue than they already are. “Profit are coming down,” he says. “It’s not going to be pleasant.
Bankrate survey: Many stock analysts believe the bull market will continue into 2017
Bankrate
March 31, 2016
Favoring the U.S. is Michael K. Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, who says, “While we continue to believe the pace of economic growth will be modest in the U.S., we think that stacks up well against most other countries.”
As U.S. stocks rise, old headwinds persist
USA Today
March 21, 2016
But beware enduring and fresh risks, counters Michael Farr, president of money management firm Farr, Miller & Washington. “Looking ahead over the near term, the upside is fairly limited for stocks while the downside could certainly be significant,” says Farr.
What’s So Bad About a Little Deflation?
Huffington Post
March 15, 2016
I hope I’ve sufficiently hammered home the idea that policymakers, economists and investors should not hope for a deflationary environment. But given its negative impact on the economy, should we as investors be worried about deflation? Not according to the Fed.
Huffington Post
March 9, 2016
This paradox, and the explanatory factors cited above, create an increasingly tricky environment for investors in consumer stocks. There are indeed pockets of growth for traditional retailers like home improvement retailers and auto part retailers, who are gaining wallet share due to both pent-up demand and deferred maintenance spending. But in today’s environment, the astute investor has many more factors to evaluate before committing money to the retail space. The maintenance of relatively strong consumer spending is no longer the major factor in the performance of “retail” companies.
These 10 stocks ride tireless bull to epic gains
USA Today
March 8, 2016
“The strong performance of these names … is a reflection of that healthier consumer,” says Michael Farr, CEO of investment management firm Farr, Miller & Washington. “The U.S. economy has enjoyed a much smoother and steadier recovery compared to most foreign economies.”
Investors eye Trump card’s election impact
USA Today
March 3, 2016
Clinton, however, is less of a wildcard than Democratic challenger Bernie Sanders, says Michael Farr, president of money-management firm Farr, Miller & Washington. “Although Hillary is not generally embraced by Wall Street, she is a known quantity,” says Farr.
Here’s the problem with index ETFs
CNBC.com
March 1, 2016
Index ETFs have grown in popularity as a play for diversification and dollar-cost averaging. But are they really a safe and smart way to invest? I looked back over the last 23 years and found out it can vary — and it’s important to know why.
Huffington Post
February 25, 2016
After all the turmoil, anguish, and volatility suffered over the past 10 years, if you had simply tuned out and held onto your portfolio of high-quality US stocks throughout, you would have earned nearly 7% per year – better than all but two of the asset classes we examined (to include both emerging-market stocks and non-US developed market stocks). The lesson? Let your financial advisor do the day-to-day worrying. If you have the time horizon to ride out storms, including massive hurricanes like the financial crisis, you’re best served by drowning out the noise and benefiting from the US stock market’s unparalleled ability to create wealth over long periods of time.
Fed’s Harker: Oil, inflation key to interest rate hikes
Delaware Online
February 16, 2016
Other speakers at the event included Wall Street Journal Editor Jon Hilsenrath and Michael Farr, president and majority owner of Farr Miller & Washington, a Washington, D.C.-based investment firm.
Angry voters create angstBusiness Observer
February 5, 2016
“Does it matter? Yeah, it matters a lot,” says Michael Farr, president of Washington, D.C., investment firm Farr, Miller & Washington.
The year of the shrinking bond yield
Marketplace
January 20, 2016
“Fear on wall street is on the rise,” said Michael Farr, CEO of Farr Miller and Washington. “When fear increases, people head to safety.”
U.S. stocks drop significantly to close the week
Washington Post
January 15, 2016
“This has been a long time coming,” he said. “The markets are going to correct, and stocks are going to find a normalized level. We know that down markets are unpleasant. These are the markets through which long-term investors earn their stripes.”
Stealth bear market mauls Wall Street
USA Today
January 8, 2016
“The ‘stealth bear’ market is telling us that we need to remain very cautious and defensive,” says Michael Farr, president of money-management firm Farr Miller & Washington. The reason? “The overall averages have been supported by a relatively few red-hot, large-cap names that could be vulnerable if the weakness continues.
Survey: Many stock market pros see ‘significant’ risks from terrorism, global events
Bankrate
January 7, 2016
The experts are generally bullish, with just 1 in 4 of the experts saying that the likelihood of a downturn is 50-50 or higher. “There is ample liquidity, and the banks are in solid shape,” notes Michael Farr, president and CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington.
My top 10 stock picks for 2016
CNBC.com
December 30, 2015
Farr, Miller & Washington is a “buy-to-hold” investment manager, which means we make each investment with the intent to hold the position for a period of 3-5 years. Nevertheless, in each of the past ten Decembers I have selected and invested personally in ten of the stocks we follow with the intention of holding for just one year.
CFA Society Naples to Host 2016 Annual Forecast Dinner
Naples Daily News
December 21, 2015
The Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society Naples will host several acclaimed national speakers at its 2016 Annual Forecast Dinner on Thursday, January 28, 2016 at The Ritz-Carlton Beach Resort, 280 Vanderbilt Beach Rd.
Dow craters 369 as slowdown reality sets in
USA Today
December 18, 2015
The volatility is typical for the end of the year, Farr says, especially coming off the expiration of financial instruments called options and following a big move by the Fed. “Investors expect volatility at the end of the year,” Farr says. “If this goes on another three or four days, I might change my tune real fast.”
The Fed’s latest victim: energy
CNBC.com
December 17, 2015
Well, now that the Fed is raising interest rates, its policy is now contributing to the turmoil in the energy sector. The most likely outcome is that the dollar will continue rising, which makes the bottom for energy stocks less visible.
General Electric valuation hits lofty levels after stock surge
Business Insider
December 14, 2015
GE has become a “cleaner story” as it divests most of the finance business, said Keith Davis, an analyst at investment firm Farr, Miller & Washington, but the stock’s rise gives him pause.
Consumer Drive? Don’t Hold Your Breath
Huffington Post
December 8, 2015
Since the financial crisis was the biggest financial calamity since the Depression, maybe we should expect it to take longer than 10 years for people to lose their fears and begin spending freely again. Alternatively, though, we can say that the buildup to the financial crisis was characterized by a massive amount of debt that should never have been accumulated.
Wall Street Journal
November 30, 2015
“The concerns are warranted” regarding consumer spending this holiday season, said Michael Farr, president of Farr Miller & Washington. “The American consumer is resilient,” he said, but consumers don’t have a lot more money to spend.
Don’t ‘swing for the fences’ in stocks: Farr
CNBC.com
November 27, 2015
“I’m worried because I think markets haven’t been able to really find any bad news anywhere. We’re still in a psychologically positive stage where we’re just shirking off bad news,” the founder and CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday.
Where There’s A Will There’s a Way
Huffington Post
November 24, 2015
As we go through the election campaign process next year, we’ll be looking for the candidate most willing to give it straight to the American people.
Time to invest in blue-chip stocks
CNBC.com
October 29, 2015
As stock volatility returned in August and September following a long lull, one of the market trends I identified was the disproportionate selling of some of the largest and most defensive blue-chip companies. If this seems counterintuitive to you, then you’re not alone.
Small stock weakness signals shift from risk
USA Today
October 29, 2015
“I’m not surprised to see small-cap underperforming in recent weeks,” says Michael Farr, CEO of money-management firm Farr, Miller & Washington. “Smaller companies are generally deemed to be more speculative investments compared to large caps. As volatility has increased, some investors may have sought the relative safety of large caps with their strong balance sheets and cash stockpiles.”
Stocks close mostly lower; transports outperform
CNBC.com
October 29, 2015
“Basically we’re hanging on to the 200 points from yesterday,” said Michael Farr, president and CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington. “I don’t think the market expects the Fed to move at all,” he said, noting the statement was “pure wordsmithing and not material in terms of action.”
Earnings season: How low can you go?
CNBC.com
October 19, 2015
Amid a clear weakening in incoming economic data, third-quarter earnings are coming in a bit ahead of expectations…again. Shocking I know. Corporate management teams have become so adept at lowering the bar that a lame horse could clear it with ease.
Bulls Gain Ground in Barron’s Fall Big Money Poll
Barrons
October 17, 2015
Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, in Washington, D.C., with assets of $1.1 billion, suggests that ultralow interest rates are responsible, in part, for sky-high valuations in certain speculative corners of the market. When the Fed finally raises interest rates, the price of the “Netflix stocks” will fall and money will be redirected to safer stocks such as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Farr says.
Rate hike timing anxiety keeps traders on edge
CNBC.com
October 8, 2015
“I think the market psychology tomorrow will be driven by the same things (that they have been) for the last seven years. That’s the Fed governors,” said Michael Farr, president and CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington. “They’ve got to sound resolved. They’ve got to sound like they’ve got to do something and then they’ve got to do it.”
Are Stocks Headed For A Bear Market?
Forbes
September 30, 2015
Despite the first technical “correction” from its all-time highs, the S&P 500 is still up close to 180% from the financial-crisis low on March 9, 2009. This strong performance is attributable to several factors, the most important of which are earnings growth and expansion in the price-to-earnings multiple.
Four reasons the market won’t crash
CNBC
September 30, 2105
We are concerned that the Federal Reserve is perpetuating an asset boom/bust cycle that began when Alan Greenspan was Fed chair. However, we don’t think that the market is on the precipice of another Fed-induced asset-price collapse similar to the technology/Internet stock crash and the housing collapse.
Blankfein’s Tenacity, Goldman’s Bench Are Solace in Cancer Fight
Bloomberg
September 22, 2015
“It’s one thing when your Uncle Frank says ‘I’m going to be fine;’ a CEO of a publicly traded company just can’t say that off-hand,” Farr said. “We can feel fairly confident that as Mr. Dimon said he would be back in a few months and indeed he was, that Mr. Blankfein’s experience will be equally mild.”
Why the Fed couldn’t raise rates
CNBC
September 18, 2015
The labor market, despite a huge decline in the unemployment rate, is still displaying some troublesome signs. The labor-participation rate is hovering at levels last seen in the late 1970’s, and the “underemployment rate” (U-6) has only just recently dropped to the peak levels seen following the 2001 recession. These metrics suggest much more labor-market slack than the headline unemployment rate would reveal.
Wall Street: Will jobs data outweigh China fears?
USA Today
September 4, 2015
“This is a very tough call for the Fed,” Michael Farr, president of money-management firm Farr, Miller & Washington, told USA TODAY. “For my part, I think there are several reasons why the Fed will either defer the first rate hike or do one symbolic hike and then pause.”
Currency wars may put the Fed on hold
CNBC
September 2, 2015
Currency wars refer to a process whereby numerous countries simultaneously attempt to gain trade advantages through the devaluation of their currencies. The problem is, though, that when many different countries are devaluing their currencies at the same time, it is hard to determine which countries, if any at all, will ultimately benefit.
Wall Street Journal
August 17, 2015
“I’m like everyone else—I’m really watching what the Fed’s going to do,” said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington. A rate increase “is not a done deal by any stretch at this point given the news out of China…Where’s the growth engine? Where’s the growth in the world? That question leads to a lot of long pauses.”
Currency War: What you need to know
USA Today
August 12, 2015
“When people start talking about ‘currency wars,’ it’s never a good thing,” says Michael Farr, president of money-management firm Farr, Miller & Washington. “China’s move to devalue its currency could be the first shot across the bow towards a wider currency war.”
Huffington Post
August 6, 2015
Economic data and financial-asset prices don’t always paint the same picture about the health of the economy. In fact, there can be extended periods in which the economic data tell you one thing and asset prices (for our purposes, stocks and bonds) tell an altogether different story.
Adding Real Value in the Face of Robo Encroachment
Financial Advisor IQ
July 30, 2015
Michael Farr is president and CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington, a Washington, D.C.-headquartered investment firm managing $1.2 billion. Farr has seen clients struggle with diminished capacity as they age, but he has chosen to keep them engaged and active even as he protects them from the potential dangers of cognitive decline.
Why China’s stock market syndrome is rattling markets
USA Today
July 27, 2015
China’s clout on the world economic stage adds to investor angst, explains Michael Farr, CEO of money-management firm Farr, Miller & Washington. For years, China has been building out its infrastructure, soaking up huge amounts of commodities, ranging from metals to energy to agriculture, to meet soaring demand.
U.S. Stocks Follow Global Markets Lower
Wall Street Journal
July 27, 2015
“The problems we are now seeing in China are the inevitable result of an economy that had grown too fast and at any cost,” said Michael Farr, president of financial adviser Farr, Miller & Washington, which manages about $1.2 billion. “China is a much bigger risk right now than Greece ever was.”
Expect more record highs in market this year: Expert
CNBC.com
July 27, 2015
CNBC contributor Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, noted that the market has been making new all-time highs for a several years.
IBM earnings: $3.84 per share, vs expected EPS of $3.78
CNBC
July 20, 2015
“It’s an old-school tech business that’s trying to become new school. But it’s got a great balance sheet, good management,” said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington and a CNBC contributor.
United Tech faces growth challenges as Sikorsky divestment nears
Reuters
July 9, 2015
“As long as there’s economic weakness outside the U.S., which doesn’t seem to be lifting anytime soon, it’s going to be one of those stocks that suffers,” said Keith Davis, principal at investment management firm Farr, Miller & Washington, which holds about 250,000 UTC shares.
Europe on a ‘collision’ course after Greece shocks with ‘no’ vote
CNBC.com
July 5, 2015
“You have to watch the banks and the sovereign banks and how it’s going to react,” said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington. “Certainly our markets go down on the open. This is going to be a very messy, very noisy process. … Keep an eye on your long-term goals because this is not going to be pretty.”
How To Invest Your Money In The Second Half Of 2015
Forbes
June 28, 2015
A consensus opinion seems to be developing that growth in the U.S. economy is set to accelerate from the lackluster pace over the past six years. We’re not so sure. There are a number of structural impediments to faster U.S. growth. The most notable of which is the economy’s ability to withstand a meaningful increase in interest rates.
Huffington Post
June 25, 2015
It is still early days for the American newfound interest in health and wellness, but as organics only make up 5% of total food sales I think the industry has a long runway of growth ahead.
Fund investors flee U.S. stock funds
USA Today
June 24, 2015
“Investors have stopped making money, as returns year-to-date pale in comparison to recent years,” says Michael Farr, CEO of money- management firm Farr, Miller & Washington.
How to play the record-breaking Nasdaq
USA Today
June 21, 2015
But that doesn’t mean bail out of tech and biotechs completely, Farr says. “There’s ample reason to be cautious when an index is making new all-time highs, but the trend is your friend,” Farr says. But if you do own a risky, money-losing company that’s up huge, think about selling it and replacing it with a a tech stock that’s more fundamentally sound.
Billionaire Rales brothers ready for a new act in split of Danaher Corp.
Washington Post
May 22, 2015
“The Rales brothers have made a fortune at finding those diamonds in the rough, those high school truants who end up doing very well when you pay a little attention,” said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington LLC, a District investment firm that owns Danaher stock on behalf of its clients.
Leading Financial Pros Swear These Top Notch Investing Books Will Make You A Better Investor
Forbes
May 17, 2015
In 1987, I was 26 years old and about to begin my first job as a stockbroker for Wheat First Securities. I was excited at the opportunity but anxious about what it all entailed. Then I was given How to Buy Stocks by Louis C. Engel and I felt ready to take on the tasks that lay ahead.
Have we seen the top in bond yields?
CNBC
May 14, 2015
Treasury yields fell dramatically during 2014 and the beginning of 2015, even in the face of some encouraging economic data. Since mid-2014, there were three primary factors contributing to the continued drop in yields:
Wall Street ends down on global jitters; oil stocks lower
Reuters
May 11, 2015
“Given the level of investor angst, today’s selloff was modest,” said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington in Washington, D.C.
Poking Holes in the Strong-Dollar Thesis
Huffington Post
May 11, 2015
Until the last few days, it seemed like everyone thought the dollar would resume its upward trend following a short period of consolidation. So far that hasn’t been the case. When everyone thinks the same thing, it’s usually wrong.
How to know when to break up — with your financial adviser
Deseret National News
May 5, 2015
“Some investors actually change financial advisers too often,” said Michael Farr of Farr, Miller and Washington, a Washington, D.C., investment management firm. “You need a solid reason.”
Much ado about somethingEconomist
May 2, 2015
However, Michael Farr, the CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington, an investment-management firm (which holds a position in Perrigo), observes that consolidations in the generic industry are an effort to create both scale and negotiating power with purchasers of drugs. This is why, he says, the markets have rewarded consolidators through increases in their share prices.
Sell in May and Go Away: It’s True But Here’s Why You Should Ignore It
Forbes
April 30, 2015
“It’s as good as abracadabra. It’s an incantation,” said Michael Farr, president & CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington, an investment firm with $1.2 billion under management in Washington D.C. “Investors want to believe there’s something magical to take away risk and provide reward.”
Major Brokerages Roll Out Stock Market Apps For Apple Watch: Heroes or Zeros?
Forbes
April 28, 2015
Michael Farr, president and CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington, an investment firm with $1.2 billion under management in Washington, D.C., bought an Apple Watch for his son as a college graduation present. But he has no interest in one for himself. Being a little removed from the stock market noise would probably be better for long-term investors, he said.
15 years after 2000 top, Nasdaq sets new record high
USA Today
April 23, 2015
“It’s clearly a sign of a ‘risk-on’ mentality, in my opinion,” says Farr, who says investors have been emboldened by Fed support in recent years.
Expert Wisdom on the Federal Reserve, the Dollar and More
On the Money Radio
April 22, 2015
Michael is a well-respected finance professional and a paid contributor to CNBC television and other shows. He shares his insights on macroeconomics, the positives and the negatives of the Federal Reserve’s role in our economy, and how the Fed risks losing credibility by having its fingers in too many pies while overly interfering with the natural flow of the free market system.
It’s about the central banks, stupid!
CNBC
April 20, 2015
What portended to be a very ugly trading day on Monday was reversed, erasing most of Friday’s decline. This must be what a ping-pong ball feels like. As investors are batted from one side of the table to the other, they recognize the central banks as the table-tennis combatants.
D.C.-area appointments and promotions for April 20
Washington Post
April 20, 2015
Farr, Miller & Washington of the District appointed Taylor McGowan chief investment officer.
Market Mavens Still Bullish On Market Outlook This Year Despite Volatility
Forbes
April 6, 2015
But “the U.S. should continue to benefit from being the best house in a bad neighborhood,” says Michael Farr, CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington.
Why stocks kicked off 2nd quarter in the red
USA Today
April 1, 2015
“Investors are beginning to worry about first-quarter earnings reports,” says Michael Farr of money management firm Farr, Miller & Washington.
Don’t get too optimistic about the housing market
CNBC.com
April 1, 2015
The current housing market is emblematic of the effect that ultra-low interest rates have had on the economy at large. Low interest rates have inflated the economy just as they have inflated housing prices. In other words, the economy has become heavily dependent on low interest rates, and nobody can predict what will happen when the training wheels are removed.
Survey: Market pros give stocks a thumbs-up
Bankrate
April 1, 2015
“The U.S. should continue to benefit from being the best house in a bad neighborhood,” says Michael Farr, CEO of Farr, Miller & Washington.
Why Do Interest Rates Keep Decreasing?
Huffington Post
March 27, 2015
The music has been playing for a very long time now, and investors have benefited handsomely. Make sure you have a seat nearby when the music stops. This is not a time to add incremental risk to portfolios.
Market reaction to Fed rate talk: 3 scenarios
USA Today
March 18, 2015
“This is the consensus opinion,” says Farr. “The silliness surrounding the word patience has gotten out of control. Removing the word “patient” does not mean the Fed will definitely hike in June, and we think a growing consensus understands this.”
Huffington Post
March 6, 2015
Sub-par growth of 2.0%-2.5% is not necessarily bad! The stock market has done extremely well in this low-growth environment. However, the stakes are now high due to valuation levels. We advocate sticking with quality and increasing focus on valuation. No need to chase the nose-bleed stocks!
Investors plug into tech in March
USA Today
March 2, 2015
There’s also a chance tech stocks could get some benefit from an unlikely place: cheap oil prices, says Michael Farr of Farr Miller & Washington. Consumers have had a break at the gas pump for nine months now, and are just coming around to thinking about how to deploy the extra cash.
Huffington Post
February 24, 2015
In the summer of 2013, a sharp spike higher in interest rates caused by the “taper tantrum” (fear that the Fed will soon end monetary easing) reduced both housing affordability and the opportunities to lower mortgage rates through refinancing.
Huffington Post
February 18, 2015
The huge increase in stock prices over the past six years has created an interesting dilemma for individual investors seeking to protect their wealth. The overall market, as measured by the S&P 500, is up over 200 percent since the March 2009 low.
University of Delaware
February 13, 2015
“In literature, tragedies always begin on sunny days,” Farr said, reading from The Arrogance Cycle. Feeling like “you can’t lose,” he continued, can lead to poor decision-making.
Wall Street Journal
February 9, 2015
“They’re setting a precedent, and that’s really the most important thing,” said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, which manages about $1.2 billion. “Our markets are down because this is a reminder that this problem won’t go away. It’s not as insignificant as we like to think.”
Huffington Post
January 30, 2015
Bullish sentiment at the beginning of a new year is nothing new. It seems like every January, expectations are reset and people become more hopeful regardless of any volatility in the recent past. It kind of reminds me of Redskins fans.
Can you still trust these economic indicators?
CNBC.com
January 23, 2015
It used to be that the bond market and commodity prices were some of the most reliable places to get a read on the future direction of the U.S. economy.
Bold Action Plan or Delusional Rant?
Huffington Post
January 21, 2015
Depending on which side of the aisle you favor, President Obama’s State of the Union Speech last night was either a bold plan of action or a delusional rant.
OPINION: Taking credit for the recovery
CNBC.com
January 20, 2015
That is good news, and while I agree that times have been pretty good, I think we are not in a full recovery and have some tougher times ahead.
Dow regains mojo and eyes back-to-back rallies
USA Today
January 8, 2015
“The market is trading on oil,” says Michael Farr, president of money management firm Farr Miller & Washington. “If oil stabilizes … the market will stabilize.”
Falling Oil and Its Global Impact
On the Money Radio
December 31, 2014
Michael Farr is a veteran of the markets and has seen several trends come and go – like the time in 1999 when investors wanted to sell oil and buy dot-coms… and we all know how that turned out.
CNBC.com
December 30, 2014
Farr, Miller & Washington is a “buy-to-hold” investment manager, which means we make each investment with the intent to hold the position for a period of three to five years. Nevertheless, in each of the past ten Decembers I have selected and invested (personally) in ten of the stocks we follow with the intention of holding for just one year.
Huffington Post
December 29, 2014
The Dow Jones Industrial Average crept above 18,000 for the first time ever Tuesday as gas prices continued their free fall to a U.S. average of $2.37/ per gallon (according to AAA).
Wild price swings — up and down — return to Wall Street
USA Today
December 19, 2014
“The past two days suggest a 700-point mispricing (in the market),” Farr told USA TODAY. “This seems excessive. (Given the) precious little change in Fed language the pent-up, powerful exuberance is stunning. We are, I believe, entering the final psychological stage of a bull market: buy-anything exuberance; markets only go up.”
Should the Fed Be Worried About Deflation?
Huffington Post
December 18, 2014
The Labor Department reported Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for November this morning. The sequential headline drop of 0.3% compared to October was the biggest decline since the 0.8% decline reported for December, 2008. As the table below shows, the MoM drop was largely due to a 3.8% decrease in energy prices during the month.
What will it take for the economy reach escape velocity?
CNBC.com
December 12, 2014
How are you feeling about your investments these days? Are you upset because you haven’t quite kept up with your friends? Are you emboldened to take more risk following such consistently positive market returns of late? Or do you remain distrustful of the stock market following the tumultuous not-too-distant past?
New United Tech CEO to take stage amid Wall Street break-up talk
Reuters
December 10, 2014
“My sense is that investors believe that a more engaged CEO will be more inclined to execute value-creating transactions, including the possible divestiture of Sikorsky,” said Keith Davis, principal at investment management firm Farr, Miller & Washington, which holds about 200,000 United Tech shares.
The Squeeze of the Middle Class
Huffington Post
December 5, 2014
We think the Fed’s lengthy Quantitative Easing program was misguided and short-sited. The resulting financial dislocations and distortions are likely to be felt long into the future. If I were to articulate one message to Janet Yellen it would be that higher stock prices are not an unambiguous positive.
University of Delaware
December 1, 2014
The 2015 February Economic Forecast will bring experts on business and economics to the University of Delaware. Presented by UD’s Center for Economic Education and Entrepreneurship in the Alfred Lerner College of Business and Economics in partnership with Lyons Companies, the forecast will feature prestigious speakers from a variety of backgrounds.
New UTC chief known to Wall Street, giving solace amid abrupt move
Reuters
November 24, 2014
“I’m comfortable that … he’s a known quantity in the investment community,” said Keith Davis, principal at investment management firm Farr, Miller & Washington, which holds about 250,000 United Tech shares.
Huffington Post
November 21, 2014
Whether due to poor weather, the threat of a government shut-down, a struggling Europe, the expiration of tax breaks, or the threat of war — economic growth has, fairly predictably, stumbled to some extent in each year since the recession. Will we ever get out of this malaise?
Most Americans aren’t enjoying the recovery
CNBC.com
November 12, 2014
There is a high degree of anxiety over the financial preparedness to eventually punch out for good, according to a recent poll by CBS News. Consumers earning under $50,000 a year were the most worried, with many finding it hard to juggle saving and paying their bills. Two-thirds of that group said they don’t think they’re saving enough for retirement.
Deleveraging Has Not Yet Run Its Course
Huffington Post
November 6, 2014
I’ve argued for some time that the process of deleveraging has yet to run its course. The aggregate level of debt in our economy currently stands at a record high, even though many pundits continue to say that debt levels are much more manageable now as compared to the pre-crisis days.
November starts a great stretch for Wall Street
USA Today
November 3, 2014
“As the more serious discussion about raising rates begins, markets may respond less well,” says Michael Farr, president of money-management firm Farr Miller & Washington. Indeed, any hints from the Fed that rate hikes will come earlier in 2015 than currently anticipated could cause market turbulence.
Market rally after midterms? One pro is worried
CNBC.com
November 3, 2014
Conventional wisdom is that stocks will rally if Republicans take control of the Senate in Tuesday’s election. Why Michael Farr is still worried.
Events Could Test History for U.S. Stocks
Wall Street Journal
November 2, 2014
“There are so many things that could shock markets that I think are very fully valued,” said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, which oversees $1.1 billion in Washington. “I would caution investors to make sure they have a seat when the music stops.”
Huffington Post
October 31, 2014
Since its recent peak at the end of June, the price of oil has dropped more than 20 percent. As a consequence, the S&P 500 Energy index has suffered a decline of about 15 percent over the same time frame (compared to a small increase for the overall index).
Here’s what the Fed SHOULD say
CNBC.com
October 28, 2014
The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee starts a two-day meeting on Tuesday. At the last FOMC meeting in September, there was the usual speculation about potential changes in monetary policy, which was capped off with a press conference.
Here’s why I’m still defensive on stocks
CNBC.com
October 22, 2014
Some of the same pundits who were worried about the lack of a 10-percent correction in three years are now waving the “all clear” sign as we have finally gotten the correction behind us.
Wall Street Trading Gets Busy Again, After a Long Lull
Wall Street Journal
October 17, 2014
“I definitely think the volatility we saw in September can continue for a while,” said Keith Davis, a principal at Farr Miller & Washington LLC, a Washington-based asset manager that oversees more than $1 billion, including J.P. Morgan shares.
Huffington Post
October 15, 2014
Major news stories lead directly to one of the biggest pitfalls of investing: becoming distracted by all the noise that may not be relevant to a long-term investor’s particular situation.
Another roller coaster ride for Wall Street?
USA Today
October 13, 2014
“The market is sending signs of caution. … Woe to those who ignore them with complacency,” said Michael Farr, president of money management firm Farr Miller & Washington. “This may in fact pass as just another blip on another stronger bull market advance. Or, it may be the signal of a more significant, but much anticipated, decline.”
Lower US gas price could pump up Wal-Mart, other discount chains
Reuters
October 10, 2014
“Wal-Mart shoppers have not seen wage gains in a long time, so they don’t have a lot more money to spend,” said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington. “When you see the consumer have wage gains Wal-Mart will start to do well.”
Selloff a reason to buy? Market pros say ‘yes’
CNBC.com
October 9, 2014
However, Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington disagreed, arguing that opportunities for continued margin improvement are waning. “From time to time markets go down. Stocks can go down,” Farr said.
Why earnings expectations may be too hopeful
CNBC.com
October 9, 2014
Investors should attempt to isolate non-recurring items (both positive and negative) when evaluating the performance of a company or an index. The goal is to get a clearer idea of core, recurring earnings power before all the noise that can distort the true picture.
Has Goldman Sachs run out of moves?
Fortune
October 6, 2014
“In contrast to the past, they’re being extremely conservative in the way they’re managing, and it will take a couple of years to see how they adapt to the new environment,” says Keith Davis, a portfolio manager with Farr, Miller & Washington, which holds $20 million in Goldman shares.
Huffington Post
October 2, 2014
Stock buybacks have traditionally been perceived as a shareholder-friendly and tax-efficient vote of confidence in future business prospects. In normal times, many corporate Boards issue authorizations to buy back enough shares, at the very least, to cover the dilution caused by share-based compensation plans.
Pros weigh in: Is BABA a ‘buy’ above $90?
USA Today
September 19, 2014
“There are enormous risks in getting involved in a stock like this,” says Michael Farr, a money manager at Farr Miller & Washington, despite the fact that Alibaba already generates “significant profits,” making its valuation much more reasonable.
The Fed’s hard choices: Time to pay up
CNBC.com
September 18, 2014
The Federal Reserve remains concerned enough to keep interest rates very low for a “considerable time” after it finishes its asset purchases. I can’t say I’m too surprised.
Another Flash Crash or Market Shutdown?
Huffington Post
September 11, 2014
My weekend reading got me thinking about 1987. I read that the percentage of bullish advisors has not been this high since 1987. The percentage of bullish advisors is usually a contrary indicator: when a large majority become bullish, a downturn can usually be expected.
Huffington Post
September 4, 2014
I want to buy a house. Would you be willing to loan me $250,000 for 30 years at 4.25 percent? Your answer is crucially important.
Capital Buzz: Investment pro Michael Farr offers a reality check
Washington Post
August 30, 2014
When he isn’t prognosticating on CNBC, Michael Farr, president of the Washington investment firm Farr, Miller & Washington, is managing $1 billion-plus of client money.
Two big problems in the job market
CNBC.com
August 27, 2014
The unemployment rate has come down from the crisis high of 10.0 percent (October 2009) to the current rate of 6.2 percent. We have generated an average of 230,000 jobs a month so far in 2014.
Huffington Post
August 22, 2014
Second-quarter earnings season is nearly in the books, so we decided to provide an early progress report. According to data obtained from Bloomberg, 95 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported their 2Q results.
Why Europe loves Yellen’s moves
Marketplace
August 22, 2014
“There’s a real fear that the U.S. will raise rates more quickly and that they’ll see a money drain out of Europe,” says Michael Farr, president of investment firm Farr, Miller and Washington.
Goldilocks lives! Time for Fed to stand down
CNBC.com
August 1, 2014
Once upon a time, good economic news was good news for the stock market. Remember those days? Incoming data suggesting a brighter economic outlook was greeted with enthusiastic demand for stock in companies that could profit from the economic growth.
Enough Fed! Give Free Markets a Chance!
Huffington Post
July 25, 2014
For the past few years, we have argued that the economy needs to continue the process of deleveraging as consumer and government debt levels remain far too high from an historical perspective.
Finalists for Community Leadership Awards announced by Invest in Others and InvestmentNews
InvestmentNews
July 23, 2014
The Invest in Others Charitable Foundation and InvestmentNews have announced the finalists for the eighth annual Community Leadership Awards. The awards recognize the philanthropic work financial advisers perform in their communities and around the world.
When do we get off the Fed treadmill?
CNBC.com
July 11, 2014
When do we get off this treadmill, where central banks believe it’s their job to not only provide stability but also boost asset prices?
Public Speaking: How to Connect With Clients
Financial-Planning.com
July 10, 2014
Michael Farr, president and chief investment officer at Farr, Miller & Washington, an investment management firm in Washington, D.C.
Dow Power! Iconic stock gauge tops 17000 for 1st time
USA Today
July 3, 2014
Michael Farr, president of money-management firm Farr Miller and Washington, says Dow 17,000 has a tinge of both good and bad news.
JPMorgan Investors Show Support for Dimon in Cancer Fight
Bloomberg
July 2, 2014
The bank has deep contingency and succession plans, and Dimon’s illness may serve as no more than a valuable “fire drill,” said Michael Farr, president of Farr Miller & Washington LLC, a Washington-based asset manager that oversees more than $1.1 billion…
Record Highs: Time To Celebrate or Hunker Down?
USA Today
June 21, 2014
So, the pile-on continues as the market keeps slowly-but-steadily pushing to unseen heights. “Bull market psychology is controlling the day,” says Michael Farr of Farr Miller & Washington. “We discount bad news and embrace all good news.” Talk about…
More of the Same
Huffington Post
June 19, 2014
As expected, the Federal Reserve stuck to its pattern of reducing asset purchases by another $10 billion. The monthly pace is now down to just $35 billion, consisting of $20 billion in Treasury bonds and $15 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). While we’re not surprised by the Fed’s announcement, we do think…
The Message the Economy Is Sending the Fed
CNBC
June 18, 2014
On the heels of a downward revision to first-quarter U.S. GDP growth last month, full-year economic growth projections are coming down. The big question mark that arises as a result of these downward revisions is how the Federal Reserve will react? The International Monetary Fund…
Asian Morning Briefing: U.S. Stocks Little Changed
Wall Street Journal
June 16, 2014
Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, which manages $950 million, said the renewed fighting in Iraq “is a big concern” and could further knock stocks if it keeps oil prices high or leads to broader instability in the region…
Cantor’s Dethroning: What It Means For the Market
CNBC
June 11, 2014
I strive to avoid political opining when at all possible. But the upset of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, which marked the first time a majority leader has ever lost a primary election, is one of those developments that must be addressed when evaluating the investment landscape…
Tracking Earnings
Huffington Post
May 19, 2014
According to data obtained from Bloomberg, 92 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 have now reported their results for the first quarter of 2014…
After Profit Drops Again, An Investor Dares Ask: Has Wal-Mart Lost Its Way?
Wall Street Journal
May 16, 2014
“We’re getting a Wal-Mart rollback here,” said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, who said he was considering adding more to his Wal-Mart stake after the Thursday dip…
David Tepper is right, use caution: Michael Farr
CNBC.com
May 15, 2014
Hedge fund manager David Tepper is right to be nervous about this market, investment manager Michael Farr told CNBC Thursday…
Voices: Michael Farr, on Discussing China’s Slowing Growth with Clients
Wall Street Journal
May 9, 2014
Voices is an occasional column that allows wealth managers to address issues of interest to the advisory community. Michael Farr is president of Farr, …
The Fed is not the answer
CNBC.com
May 8, 2014
Prior to the Federal Reserve’s September meeting last year, we went against the consensus opinion and said that the Fed would postpone its decision to taper…
Economists Are Wrong
Huffington Post
May 7, 2014
The facts are these: the underlying characteristics of the labor market remain troublesome; middle-class incomes are not growing; the divide between the haves and have-nots has seldom been wider; housing is slowing from an affordability-induced bounce; exports are weakening due to slower growth in emerging markets and continued problems in…
Cash-Craving Investors Spur Banks to Special Dividends
Businessweek
May 6, 2014
Special dividends also may not be well-received by investors who seek dependability, according to Keith Davis, an analyst at Farr, Miller & Washington LLC. “The lack of certainty would not play well,” said Davis, whose Washington-based firm manages $1 …
Investments & the ghost of Bernie Madoff
CNBC.com
April 19, 2014
“The tough part about ‘too good to be true’ is that it is often hard to tell in the moment,” said Michael Farr, an investment manager, author of “Restoring Our American Dream: The Best Investment” and a CNBC contributor. “It often requires some time …
Market Noise and Fed Messaging
Huffington Post
April 16, 2014
Markets have been jittery, and airways have been filled with angst. Tech stocks, biotech stocks and other high-fliers of the recent past have been falling in price. Some of the more dramatic winners of yesteryear are losing money to more conservative blue-chip names and bonds. This has been a clear…
Day after plunge, stocks lower
Reno Gazette Journal
April 11, 2014
But despite the carnage in so-called “momentum” stocks and the rising uncertainty, some Wall Street pros are advising investors not to panic…
The Student Loan Explosion
Huffington Post
April 9, 2014
There has been an increased media focus in recent months on the rising cost of college tuition and the associated growth in student loan balances. In general, there is a sense that graduating college students are being saddled with so much debt that it will inhibit their ability to live…
Nasdaq takes a dive as momentum stocks cool
USA Today
April 4, 2014
The Nasdaq composite, crushed by big losses suffered by formerly highflying “momentum” stocks, plunged 2.6% Friday, taking some of the …
The Fed Moves the Goal Line
Huffington Post
March 20, 2014
Following its meeting, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee announced no increase in the near-zero interest rate on Fed Funds and said it would reduce monthly bond purchases to $55 billion. In addition, it stated that it would be looking beyond the unemployment rate to additional indicators in…
Mother Nature Clouds the Outlook
Huffington Post
February 25, 2014
The economic data has clearly been deteriorating over the past couple of weeks. Data tracking activity across multiple sectors of the economy suggest that growth is slowing from the brisk pace reported for the second half of 2013. Economists have been quick to point out that inclement weather across large…
The VIX Also Rises
Huffington Post
February 3, 2014
In a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve announced its decision to continue the process of “tapering” its purchases of Treasury and Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). Some had speculated that the Fed might pause given the upheaval in emerging markets over the past few days. We…
Support at 3.0%?
Huffington Post
January 10, 2014
The bond market has sold off rather dramatically since mid-year when the Fed signaled its intent to begin the tapering process. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond currently sits at about 3.0%, up from a low of about 1.4% in mid-2012. It appears that 3.0% is a key level…
Playing With Fire
Huffington Post
December 3, 2013
There is ample discussion about the possible damage that may ensue as a result of the federal government’s inability to agree on budgets and debt ceiling increases. So far, the wrangling on Capitol Hill has contributed to some volatility in the capital markets but nothing as dire as the forecasts…
Drowning In Gasoline?
Wall Street Journal
November 10, 2013
Companies are racing to issue stock and bonds because markets are high, offering great prices for sellers, said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, which oversees more than $950 million in Washington, D.C.. Issuers are grabbing…
More Kinds of Corporate Spies Target More Kinds of Trade Secrets
Voice of America
November 5, 2013
The author of the book “Restoring Our American Dream,” Michael Farr, says industrial espionage also destroys trust and hurts the economy. Farr is an investment advisor and says without trust, businesses will not take the risks and make the investments needed to create a growing economy and new jobs. “If you really…
>Relief Rally Shows Investors Keeping the Faith
USA Today
October 10, 2013
“The relief rally is both predictable and despicable,” says Michael Farr of Farr Miller and Washington. Congress “brought us to the precipice, brought us back from the precipice, but to no where in particular,” he says. Even after Thursday’s…
S&P 500 Extends Record As Bank Rally Offsets UPS Forecast
Businessweek
July 12, 2013
U.S. stocks rose for a seventh day, extending a record for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as better-than-estimated bank earnings overshadowed a reduced profit forecast from United Parcel Service Inc. Financial stocks rose the most out of 10 S&P 500 groups after Wells Fargo & Co (WFC). reported earnings…
Warren Joins Effort to Bring Back Glass-Steagull
Politico
July 12, 2013
Michael K. Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, emails: “Bernanke threw more fuel on the capital markets fire yesterday. I believed all along that investors misread the initial talk of ‘tapering’. The reaction to Bernanke’s comments…
Ben Bernanke: Taper, No Shave
Marketplace
June 18, 2013
“That would be a full 180,” says Michael Farr, chief investment officer at Farr, Miller Wahsington and author of “Restoring Our American Dream: The Best Investment.” “With tightening, the Fed would actually start to reverse the process, they could start selling bonds from their…
The Dollar Gets Stronger: Farr
PBS Frontline
March 28, 2013
The U.S. dollar index which measures the value of the dollar relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies, has increased over 5 percent since the beginning February. While this may not sound like a big move, it is actually quite significant for…
Be Bullish! Bernanke Has Spoken!
Huffington Post
March 22, 2013
The Federal Open Market Committee released a statement summarizing its day and a half of deliberations, saying it sees “a return to moderate economic growth following a pause late last year. Labor markets have shown improvement in recent months, but the unemployment rate remains elevated…
Popes, Politicians, and Bulls
CNBC
March 14, 2013
Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress debates Paul Ryan’s budget proposal. (Feel free to groan at will. But don’t groan for long.) Bullish investors are brazenly driving share prices higher. On Tuesday, March 12, on CNBC’s The Kudlow Report, I found myself in…
Keep Your Eye on the Middle Class
Huffington Post
March 6, 2013
Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit its all-time high, but it didn’t just reach the 14,164 mark set in October 2007, it sailed to a closing number of 14,253. The 126-point jump in the Dow yesterday follows an 8.8 percent increase thus far in 2013. Even so, the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange…
Putting the Brakes on Your Gas Spending
U.S. News & World Report
March 5, 2013
We should eventually see prices come down, however, according to Michael K. Farr, a regular CNBC contributor and owner of a wealth management firm in Washington, D.C. “Prices should come back down after…
Experts Say Recovery Hinges on Sense of Unity, Financial Balance
University of Delaware
February 21, 2013
“The recovery has been heavily dependent on aggressive fiscal and monetary policy with the government shoving a lot of money into the market,” said Farr. “The recovery has benefited relatively few, meaning that the top one percent in this country…
Obama Never Exceeded U.S. Budget
Huffington Post
January 24, 2013
President Obama can claim that his government never once exceeded the budget in his first four-year term because Congress never passed a budget. The U.S. has not had a budget in four years. As the country increased the national debt by about $5 trillion in deficit spending, it never went…
Farr: Welcome to the Fiscal Farce!
CNBC
January 3, 2013
Our elected representatives have proven themselves to be a group of remarkable jerks. They have transformed the “fiscal cliff” into the “fiscal farce.” They scored a political triumph by increasing taxes on the rich while postponing any spending cuts for another 60 days. The message…
